Advertisers are funnelling late-2026 budgets into social video, performance media and retail platforms, lifting year-on-year spending. Yet the same buyers are watching the U.S. midterm elections and consumer confidence, aware that Q4 optimism can turn fragile quickly.
The measurable push
WARC’s updated global forecast puts 2026 ad spend at $1.34 trillion, an 11.9% increase on 2025, with social, video and search taking the largest share of late-year investment. Social media spend grew 21.3% in Q3, and Meta’s ad revenue rose 26% in the same period.
Holding company results reflect the momentum: Omnicom reported 7.3% organic growth, Publicis 5%, and Havas 2.4%, while WPP and Dentsu have yet to report Q3.
Six media buyers told Digiday clients are prioritizing video and performance channels. Sarah Engel, president of January Digital, put it bluntly: “In Q4, if it can’t be measured, it isn’t making the plan.”
Retail media jumps
Scott Shamberg, president and CEO of Mile Marker, said clients increased retail media budgets by 20% to 30% entering Q4, often pulling money from linear TV and search. “Retail media is the one that jumps off the charts,” he said. DTC and apparel clients at Scène Studios also reported budgets up as much as 20%, mostly earmarked for social platforms.
At the same time, legacy TV is slipping. Alistair MacCallum, chief growth officer at TodayTomorrow, expects TV spend to be down 5% to 7% year on year in categories such as travel, utilities, telco and leisure.
Why caution hangs over the quarter
- Political uncertainty: many US clients are holding budgets until the midterms are settled; consumer confidence sits near record lows.
- Retail media’s pace may be cooling: GoFish Digital expected Amazon budgets to rise 30% but is seeing closer to 7%, after a soft Prime Day for some clients.
- External shocks — from the UK government budget to fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures — could delay purchases later into the year.
Nexxen research adds a nuance for planners: almost 40% of Americans actively avoid news, but 86% of “news-avoidant voters” plan to vote in the 2026 midterms. Crucially, 91% of them passively encounter political content in social, streaming or creator environments, and 41% say creators influence their opinions.
What marketers should do
For brand teams, the final quarter is not the moment to abandon brand building, but it is a signal to attach measurement to every dollar. Keep budget flexible for a post-election release of pent-up demand, and test creator-led or retail-media placements where intent and measurability align.
Source: Digiday
