What WARC’s latest forecast says
Global advertising spend is forecast to grow 11.9% to $1.34 trillion in 2026, according to WARC Media’s Q3 2026 Global Ad Spend Forecast. That follows 10% growth in both 2024 and 2025, a run driven by corporate AI investment and major events such as the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US mid-term elections.
Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data, said the acceleration is happening even as many consumers become more cautious with spending. She described an increasingly uneven economy where the AI boom benefits some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.
Where the next ad dollar is going
Social media is forecast to be the fastest-growing major channel in 2026, rising 21.3% to $394.6 billion, and WARC expects the channel to pass $500 billion by 2028. VOD advertising is set to grow 15.1% to $48.4 billion, retail media 14.3% to $202.1 billion, search 14.2% to $295.7 billion and digital out-of-home 13.7% to $21.7 billion.
- Social media: $394.6 billion in 2026, up 21.3%
- Retail media: $202.1 billion, up 14.3%
- Search: $295.7 billion, up 14.2%
- VOD: $48.4 billion, up 15.1%
Together, social media, search and retail media will account for 66.4% of global ad spend in 2026, rising to 70% by 2028. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are projected to take 59.7% of global ad spend excluding China in 2026, or $659.6 billion, and 61.5% by 2028.
Which categories are pushing hardest
Technology and electronics is forecast to be the fastest-growing product category, with ad spend up 20.7% year on year. Travel and transport follows at 19.3%, and automotive at 17.8%. Tech and electronics brands are expected to put 40.2% of their ad spend into social media.
The India lens
Per-capita ad spend shows how uneven the global market remains. WARC forecasts the US at $1,395 per person in 2026, the UK at $935, Austria at $850 and Switzerland at $825. China is forecast at $170, Brazil at $110 and India at just $13.
For Indian marketing teams, that low base is not a sign of failure; it is headroom. As digital infrastructure and per-capita income grow, WARC’s cross-market comparison suggests emerging markets have the most room for ad investment to scale.
What marketers should do next
The forecast is a roadmap, not just a number. Marketers should test social and retail media early while budgets are still expanding, plan campaigns for AI-assisted discovery, and lock in media rates before growth moderates to 8.4% in 2027.
But do not assume search means only traditional keywords. WARC says generative search and AI assistants are becoming new gateways for product discovery and purchase, so creative and media plans must include those surfaces. Diversify beyond the dominant platforms where possible, but be realistic about where the attention and transactions are concentrated.
The forecast moderation to 8.4% in 2027 and 7.9% in 2028 is a normalisation, not a crash. Total spend is still projected to reach $1.57 trillion by 2028, 2.3 times larger than 2019.
Source: MediaNews4U
