Prediction market startup Novig made a high-stakes marketing bet: put actor Sydney Sweeney in a racy Just Sports campaign and lead with what the platform refuses to offer. The early result, shared exclusively with CNBC, is a triple-digit jump in first-time depositors, along with a backlash that marketers will want to study.
What the campaign claimed
Novig launched in early August as a federally regulated prediction market. Its campaign, released on Sept. 9, starred Sweeney explaining that Novig focuses on sports event contracts and stays away from politics, war and death markets.
“No betting on wars or deaths, and no politics,” Sweeney said in the spot.
Co-founder Jacob Fortinsky said that stance is what led Sweeney to approach Novig about taking an equity stake. The company declined to share the size of her holding.
The numbers around the launch
Comparing the 20 days before and after the campaign launch, Novig reported:
- Trading volume up nearly 94%
- First-time depositors up more than 218%
- Active users up 96% month over month and 260% year over year in September
- App downloads up more than 187%
Fortinsky said the surge exceeded expectations, especially with the NFL season starting around the same window.
The backlash and Novig’s response
The ad drew criticism from some female athletes who said it set back perceptions of women in sports. Fortinsky said the ad was meant to explain what Novig offers, not to represent female athletes, and that he respects the conversation. He added:
“Ultimately, I think we have nothing to apologize for and are very proud of the work that we did.”
Why it matters for marketers
This is not a simple celebrity endorsement. The campaign works because the ambassador’s reason for participating is connected to a product policy, not only a paycheck. That alignment is harder for competitors to copy and gives the brand a clear story when controversy arrives.
At the same time, the NFL season makes clean attribution difficult. The ad deserves credit, but the 218% depositor figure sits inside a seasonal demand window.
The risk-taking playbook
Novig has also sued multiple states over sports event contracts and allows only users aged 21 and over, a stricter rule than some rivals. Kalshi and Polymarket U.S. allow users above age 18. Fortinsky called this an intentional culture of aggressive, responsible risk-taking. The company is reportedly raising at a $2 billion valuation after a $75 million Series B earlier this year.
For marketing leaders, the framework is simple: pick an ambassador whose values fit the product, measure before-and-after windows honestly, and prepare for the second conversation before the first ad airs.
Source: CNBC
